Canadian Politics Roundup - September 3, 2015 - Close election, recession!, and border wall

New polls shows neck and neck federal election race

A new poll put out by Abacus Data on Monday shows that the federal election is a three way, neck and neck (or perhaps the better term would be "neck and neck and neck?") election so far. John Geddes, writing for Maclean's, reports that after recent polls showing an NDP surge, their support is now dropping, while Liberal support is up:

According to the firm’s online survey, conducted Aug. 26-28, the NDP’s national support stood at 31 per cent, down from 35 per cent just two weeks earlier. The Conservatives were up over the same period by a single point to 30 per cent, virtually tied with the NDP, with the Liberals breathing down their necks, up two points to 28 per cent.

In the Toronto Star, Chantal Hébert writes that the Conservatives are finally reorienting their attacks towards the New Democrats, who could now been seen as the clear front runners:

But the frontal attack on the NDP — as delivered by one of Harper’s most political ministers — does mark a shift in Conservative strategy. It is the biggest signal to date that Harper and his brain trust no longer assume that New Democrat fortunes are, on balance, a positive development because they add up to a more divided non-conservative vote.

Hébert, always a shrewd analyst of Canadian politics, continues by bringing in the Abacus poll from Monday into the mix:

According to an Abacus poll published on Monday, the race has tightened and that is mostly because outside Quebec the Liberals have reversed their pre-campaign decline in support.

Trudeau may not be leading the pack — his polling numbers are in the same ballpark as Stéphane Dion’s election night results — but he is softening up the Conservatives for a possible kill in some regions of the country.

Hébert believes that unlike the effects of a split vote on the left in 2011 that boosted the Conservatives to power, this time around it seems to be the Liberals and Conservatives splitting the vote on the right boosting the New Democrats to power.

Also in the Toronto Star, Richard Gwyn suggests that due to the historic closeness of the polls currently, and the potential that they will lead to a historic three-way seat split in the House of Commons,  the politicking and campaigning might not be over with the federal election non October 19th. Such a thing would be fascinating to see and very much unprecedented in Canadian politics.

The bottom line is: The is an incredibly close, by a nose, too close to call election the likes of which we have never seen before. Everyone should be a part of this historic occasion and get out to vote on October 19th!

Is Canada in a recession?

It was somewhat expected, and it came to pass. Statistics Canada is reporting a contraction of the Canadian economy in the second quarter of the year. Sound the alarm bells! All hands on deck! Man the lifeboats! It seems we're in a recession! This is just like in 2008! Well, except it isn't really like 2008 at all. As reported by the Canadian Press:

Canada's economy hit reverse for the second straight quarter of 2015 — knocking the country backwards into its first technical recession in six years, fresh Statistics Canada data revealed Tuesday.

But the data suggests the recessionary dip could, perhaps, already be something of the past.

The federal agency said real gross domestic product contracted at an annual pace of 0.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, which followed a revised decline of 0.8 per cent in the first three months of 2015 from its original estimate of a 0.6 per cent drop.

What does this mean? It means that we are in a "technical" recession, it meets the technical definition of a recession, but it isn't anything all that serious. In fact in June the economy may have began growing again (apart from a few pesky economic sectors), and the recession might be over before it had really begun.

Have the major political parties made this a campaign issue? You bet they have! Whereas we saw the Liberals and the Conservatives beating up on the New Democrats last Roundup, thid time we see the NDP and Liberals piling on the Conservatives.

Even Fox News, the bastion of right-wing news in America, seems a little incredulous of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's position on the matter:

Government agency Statistics Canada reported Tuesday the economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.5 percent in the second quarter and 0.8 percent during the first three months of 2015. Economists deem two conservative negative quarters a recession.

Harper refused to call it that, saying "we've had a few weak months" but the economy is bouncing back. He pointed to growth in June.

The CBC Power and Politics Twitter feed posted an interesting graph to put things into some perspective:

Here's that graphic with GDP growth numbers for G7 nations this year: #pnpcbc #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/kR4PdDSnVq

— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) September 1, 2015

According to this graph, Canada has had some of the worst GDP growth in the G7, which doesn't square with the usual Conservative talking point that we're doing better than any other G7 nation, or among the best in the G7 in terms of growth. It seems that the real worry about the Canadian economy shouldn't be recession, but rather stagnation.

Update on the Great Canadian/American Border Wall

A CBC article posted on Tuesday breaks down the logistics of Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker's US/Canada border wall I wrote about last Roundup. According to the article, the whole thing would be a huge logistical nightmare:

For starters, it would be hugely expensive to cover the 8,891 km of frontier, 40 per cent of which is water — probably on the order of $30 billion, extrapolating from the $3.2 billion cost of building just 1,040 km of border wall with Mexico.

With Justin Trudeau proposing $30 billion in federal spending for infrastructure projects over the next three years if the Liberals are elected to office, Scott Walker's Wall could be a huge boost to the Canadian economy if we build it! Of course, I say we make the Americans build the wall if they want it. Building this wall will cause some pretty major inconveniences:

But more than that, it would be a logistical nightmare. An opera house would be forced to close, people's kitchens would be cut off from their living rooms, farmers would be stranded without access to roads, a half dozen airports would have to shut down— even a golf course would lose all its players.

The article goes on to list these inconveniences. It's an interesting an amusing read.

Thanks for reading and come back soon for more Canadian political news and views! Follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab

Wendel Schwab