Sunday, 6 September 2015

Canadian Politics Roundup - September 6, 2015 - Poll update, Conservative strategy, and #PeeGate

Welcome Canadian politics watchers to the Canadian Politics Roundup for Sunday, September 6th, 2015! Today we'll be looking at the latest poll aggregation for the Canadian federal election 42, vote on October 19th, what the Conservative strategy may be this election and what monkey wrenches may have been thrown in the works, and finally, one of those very monkey wrenches was thrown in this very day.

Polls, seat count projections, place Conservatives in third


The latest polls coming in are showing interesting movement, even though all three major parties are within a few percentage points of each other so it's still a very close race.

Two new polls have come out, the first is a Léger poll printed in the Globe and Mail on Friday, September 4th which show the NDP still in the lead, but the Conservatives in third place:
The New Democratic Party has the support of 31 per cent of respondents at the national level, ahead of the Liberals at 30 per cent and Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party at 28 per cent.
This poll is a little out of date, so we haven't see the impact of any major news stories since it was taken:
The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday of this week as Canadians learned that the country was in a recession in the first half of the year, but before the Syrian refugee crisis came to dominate the campaign.
The second poll was a Forum Research poll that was published in the Toronto Star on Saturday, September 5th. It showed much the same thing as the Léger poll, namely the Conservatives falling into third place:
When it comes to the overall horse race, the battle between the NDP and the Liberals is tightening, while the Conservative party continues to trail in third place, the latest weekly Forum poll found.
Support for Mulcair’s party has dropped slightly, though it still leads with the support of 36 per cent of the 1,384 respondents. Trudeau’s Liberals are also up slightly with the backing of 32 per cent of Canadians.
But Harper’s Tories are now far behind the others, registering just 24 per cent support.
Of course, this poll is also a snapshot of the recent past rather than a reflection of what's going on today:
The poll, which was conducted between last Sunday and Tuesday, is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
As regards to seat counts, the average that the CBC poll tracker currently has is the NDP in the lead with 122 seats, the Liberals next with 114 seats, and the Conservatives third with 101 seats. The CBC poll tracker (in conjunction with threehundredeight.com) is a pretty nifty little tool for tracking where the polls say the political parties are at.

In all, it seems that the NDP's lead is shrinking, the Liberals are gaining support, and the Conservatives are slipping into third place. But, the election isn't until October 19th, and so much could happen between now and then. There's also suggestions that the campaign hasn't started in earnest yet, and that the Conservative Party has a strategy to win.

Conservative strategy and how it might all go very wrong


In an interesting article for the Winnipeg Sun, Lorne Gunter reports on the strategy of the Conservative Party for Election 42. The first part of the strategy is the well known cash angle. The Conservatives have more cash and can spend it with a longer election period:
The Tories were thought to be the only party with all the cash (more than $25 million) already in the bank to sustain just the traditional 37-day battle. But a doubly long campaign permits parties to nearly double the amount they may spend according to election finance laws.
On this front Gunter reports that his highly placed anonymous Conservative friend told him:
"We thought that we would either run the other guys out of cash early or force them to hold on to their cash until the latter days. Either way it was a bonus for us. Either they wouldn’t have money left during the last couple of weeks and we would have the field to ourselves at the very time most voters are making up their minds. Or we’d get out ahead and have the first few weeks to ourselves when voters were forming their first impressions.”
Anonymous highly placed Conservative goes on to say that the Conservatives had hoped to run out the clock on any bad news for the lazy summer portion of the campaign while letting the other parties exhaust the bad news so that the electorate eventually tunes the other parties out completely:
The Mike Duffy trial, the weak loonie, the soft recession in the first half of this year – the Tories were sure the Liberals and New Dems couldn’t resist the temptation to jump on those issues often in the early days of the election.
And they were right. Mulcair and Trudeau have been almost shrill in their attacks on the Tories’ ethics and on their economic management.
“We were hoping they’d either wear themselves out, run out of things to say or just annoy voters by saying the same things over and over for 70 days.”
I don't know if all of these words are Gunter's or highly placed anonymous Conservative, but the bias in this piece is obvious with the term "almost shrill." This theme is continued in the article as Gunter characterizes opposition criticism of the Conservatives as "incessant whining." Back to the strategy itself: This seems to be an incredibly cynical strategy on the part of the Conservative Party. It assumes that the Canadian electorate will either grow tired of hearing about negative news about the Conservatives and tune it out, or that the electorate will forget about this negative news come election day. Gunter continues:
It’s kind of a Rope-a-Dope ploy, baiting the opposition into flailing away at Harper and the Tories until Mulcair and Trudeau are worn out or voters are worn out from hearing their incessant whining. Then in the last few weeks or even just the last few days, the Tories intend to come out swinging.
This strategy relies on three things: The electorate getting worn out or sleepy during the final stage of the election campaign, Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair getting worn out or sleepy in the final stage of the election campaign, and the Conservatives never screwing up, no scandals or mistakes coming to light and smooth sailing for the Conservative campaign.

I think this article is too optimistic about the chances of success for the Conservative Party. Here are a few reasons why:
  1. Third parties have their spending restricted during the election campaign, and it seems they've been biding their time until now. Even if the other political parties can't spend anymore, it's a good bet that third parties will take up the slack.
  2. The Liberal Party has stated they will be spending the full amount on the campaign, even if they have to go into debt. They'd be stupid not to.
  3. The refugee crises seems to have thrown a wrench in the Conservative works, there's another issue the opposition parties can beat the Conservatives up over (more on that soon).
  4. The criminal trial of Bruce Carson is slated to start up on September 14th. A former top aide to the Prime Minister standing trial in a criminal case has the potential to inflict a lot of splash damage back onto the Conservatives and Stephen Harper personally.
Finally, there's the regular "bozo eruptions" that politicians are prone to, for example getting caught on hidden camera peeing into a mug in someone's home.

Conservative candidate caught with his pants down


It turns out that in 2012 current Conservative candidate Jerry Bance, fighting to get elected in the riding of Scarborough Rogue Park, was caught on a hidden camera peeing into a coffee mug and pouring it down the sink according to CBC News:
In 2012, Bance responded to a service call at a house where Marketplace had hidden cameras set up as part of an investigation into the skills and ethics of home repair service companies.

The cameras caught Bance urinating in a coffee mug and then dumping the contents into the kitchen sink while the homeowner was in the next room.
Of course, something like this isn't going to be the number one issue in an election campaign, but I think it will leave a yellow stain on the Conservative Party. I imagine that as you read this the Conservative Party top brass are telling Bance that he just has to go.

According to the above linked CBC News article,. Bance was an appliance service technician who owned his own company. He was servicing someone's appliances in their home and was caught on hidden camera by the CBC's consumer affairs show Marketplace. Bance had this to say for himself:
"I deeply regret my actions on that day. I take great pride in my work and the footage from that day does not reflect who I am as a professional or a person," Bance said when contacted by CBC News for comment.
This event might not reflect on Bance as a professional, but he's effectively become an internet joke. Twitter lit up with #PeeGate, and #CPeeC jokes (the latter being a pun on the abbreviation of the Conservative Party of Canada: CPC).

Some of the Tweets included:
Woo, we made the American news! Go Canada Go!






Thank for reading all you beautiful people! I hope to update again in the next few days on two Canadian politics stories I've been following. Stay tuned, and follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab!

Wendel Schwab
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Thursday, 3 September 2015

Canadian Politics Roundup - September 3, 2015 - Close election, recession!, and border wall

New polls shows neck and neck federal election race


A new poll put out by Abacus Data on Monday shows that the federal election is a three way, neck and neck (or perhaps the better term would be "neck and neck and neck?") election so far. Maclean's, reports that after recent polls showing an NDP surge, their support is now dropping, while Liberal support is up:
According to the firm’s online survey, conducted Aug. 26-28, the NDP’s national support stood at 31 per cent, down from 35 per cent just two weeks earlier. The Conservatives were up over the same period by a single point to 30 per cent, virtually tied with the NDP, with the Liberals breathing down their necks, up two points to 28 per cent.

In the Toronto Star, Chantal Hébert writes that the Conservatives are finally reorienting their attacks towards the New Democrats, who could now been seen as the clear front runners:
But the frontal attack on the NDP — as delivered by one of Harper’s most political ministers — does mark a shift in Conservative strategy. It is the biggest signal to date that Harper and his brain trust no longer assume that New Democrat fortunes are, on balance, a positive development because they add up to a more divided non-conservative vote.
Hébert, always a shrewd analyst of Canadian politics, continues by bringing in the Abacus poll from Monday into the mix:
According to an Abacus poll published on Monday, the race has tightened and that is mostly because outside Quebec the Liberals have reversed their pre-campaign decline in support.
Trudeau may not be leading the pack — his polling numbers are in the same ballpark as Stéphane Dion’s election night results — but he is softening up the Conservatives for a possible kill in some regions of the country.
Hébert believes that unlike the effects of a split vote on the left in 2011 that boosted the Conservatives to power, this time around it seems to be the Liberals and Conservatives splitting the vote on the right boosting the New Democrats to power.

 Also in the Toronto Star, Richard Gwyn suggests that due to the historic closeness of the polls currently, and the potential that they will lead to a historic three-way seat split in the House of Commons,  the politicking and campaigning might not be over with the federal election non October 19th. Such a thing would be fascinating to see and very much unprecedented in Canadian politics.

 The bottom line is: The is an incredibly close, by a nose, too close to call election the likes of which we have never seen before. Everyone should be a part of this historic occasion and get out to vote on October 19th!

Is Canada in a recession?


It was somewhat expected, and it came to pass. Statistics Canada is reporting a contraction of the Canadian economy in the second quarter of the year. Sound the alarm bells! All hands on deck! Man the lifeboats! It seems we're in a recession! This is just like in 2008! Well, except it isn't really like 2008 at all. As reported by the Canadian Press:
Canada's economy hit reverse for the second straight quarter of 2015 — knocking the country backwards into its first technical recession in six years, fresh Statistics Canada data revealed Tuesday.

But the data suggests the recessionary dip could, perhaps, already be something of the past.

The federal agency said real gross domestic product contracted at an annual pace of 0.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, which followed a revised decline of 0.8 per cent in the first three months of 2015 from its original estimate of a 0.6 per cent drop.
What does this mean? It means that we are in a "technical" recession, it meets the technical definition of a recession, but it isn't anything all that serious. In fact in June the economy may have began growing again (apart from a few pesky economic sectors), and the recession might be over before it had really begun.

Have the major political parties made this a campaign issue? You bet they have! Whereas we saw the Liberals and the Conservatives beating up on the New Democrats last Roundup, thid time we see the NDP and Liberals piling on the Conservatives.

Even Fox News, the bastion of right-wing news in America, seems a little incredulous of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's position on the matter:
Government agency Statistics Canada reported Tuesday the economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.5 percent in the second quarter and 0.8 percent during the first three months of 2015. Economists deem two conservative negative quarters a recession.

Harper refused to call it that, saying "we've had a few weak months" but the economy is bouncing back. He pointed to growth in June.
The CBC Power and Politics Twitter feed posted an interesting graph to put things into some perspective:
According to this graph, Canada has had some of the worst GDP growth in the G7, which doesn't square with the usual Conservative talking point that we're doing better than any other G7 nation, or among the best in the G7 in terms of growth. It seems that the real worry about the Canadian economy shouldn't be recession, but rather stagnation.

Update on the Great Canadian/American Border Wall


A CBC article posted on Tuesday breaks down the logistics of Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker's US/Canada border wall I wrote about last Roundup. According to the article, the whole thing would be a huge logistical nightmare:
For starters, it would be hugely expensive to cover the 8,891 km of frontier, 40 per cent of which is water — probably on the order of $30 billion, extrapolating from the $3.2 billion cost of building just 1,040 km of border wall with Mexico.
With Justin Trudeau proposing $30 billion in federal spending for infrastructure projects over the next three years if the Liberals are elected to office, Scott Walker's Wall could be a huge boost to the Canadian economy if we build it! Of course, I say we make the Americans build the wall if they want it. Building this wall will cause some pretty major inconveniences:
But more than that, it would be a logistical nightmare. An opera house would be forced to close, people's kitchens would be cut off from their living rooms, farmers would be stranded without access to roads, a half dozen airports would have to shut down— even a golf course would lose all its players.
The article goes on to list these inconveniences. It's an interesting an amusing read.

Thanks for reading and come back soon for more Canadian political news and views! Follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab

Wendel Schwab
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Sunday, 30 August 2015

Canadian Politics Roundup - August 30, 2015 - Vote Compass, C-24, Canada/US border wall?, and NDP attacked

Welcome to Canadian Politics Roundup where I'll be writing about what's new and exciting in the realm of Canadian politics.

Vote Compass is here!


Yesterday the CBC launched their election tradition: The Vote Compass! The Vote Compass is a nifty little tool that tells you what political party your views are most aligned with. Anyone who's used the Vote Compass in previous years (or in previous elections) you'll notice some cosmetic changes. One thing they added for this election that I think is neat is a third axis to the political spectrum. The traditional conservative - progressive for social views and left - right for economic views are joined by the third axis of status quo - reformist views on the Constitution. In other words, if you like your Senate abolished, you'll fit in the "reformist" camp, if you like your Senate the way it is, you support the "status quo."

You can either visit the linked short article above and allow the CBC to introduce you to the Vote Compass, or you can go directly to the Vote Compass and dive right in by following: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/

 

Twitter war over C-24


Yesterday on Twitter, @JustineTrudeau tweeted:

And @jkenny tweeted:

Jason Kenny's attack seems a little spurious. I don't see Justin Trudeau not wanting to punish or prevent terrorism, Trudeau just seems to have problems with the Strengthening Canadian Citizenship Act (also known as bill C-24), which a lot of people seem to think will create two tiers of citizenship for Canadians.

There are also allegations that the Strengthening Canadian Citizenship Act will be used to kick people out of the country for protesting pipelines and other natural resource projects since the act includes nebulous language, like allowing the government to revoke citizenship for committing acts "against Canada’s national interest."

When American politics touches on Canada


According to the British newspaper The Guardian, American Republican presidential candidate hopeful Scott Walker wants to build a wall on the Canada/US border. That article touches on the politicking going on within the Republican Party when it comes to illegal immigrants, and even Canada is not off limits. I think most Canadians would just laugh at the idea of a wall along the longest undefended and peaceful border in the world.

NDP, the current front-runners in the 2015 general election, attacked from all sides


Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are launching attacks against the NDP's platform. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are alleging that there is a "spending gap" in the NDP's platform, i.e. the NDP's platform has promised programs and government services that would cost $X billions, while promising to keep balanced budgets. If the NDP says they won't go into deficit, then something in their platform has to give.

What's interesting about the Liberal and Conservative attacks on the NDP''s costing of their platform is how they are different and what direction they are going in. Essentially, the Liberals are attacking the NDP from the left while the Conservatives are attacking the NDP on the right, even though their attacks are aimed at the same place.

The Liberals are saying that because the NDP's platform will lead to a budget hole, they'll need to cut government services to produce a balanced budget:


MP John McCallum, speaking for the Liberal Party said the the above linked CBC news article:
McCallum, a former bank economist, said Mulcair would have to slash spending or break most of his promises if he's serious about balancing the budget, adding that "Tom Mulcair is not telling the truth to Canadians. He's offering a phoney set of promises that he has no intention of keeping,"
The Conservatives, on the other hand, are claiming that the NDP will achieve balanced budgets while delivering everything in


 In the above CBC article, Jason Kenny, speaking on behalf of the Conservative Party, said of the NDP platform costing:
But Kenney accused Mulcair of secretly planning to impose massive tax hikes.
"Canadians cannot afford the NDP," Kenney said. "We're only a third of the way through this campaign and already their reckless spending would mean massive tax hikes."
So which is it? Are the NDP going to raise spooky scary taxes, or are they going to cute valuable can't-live-without programs and services? If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say maybe a little of column A, a little of column B.

Thanks for reading my first ever Canadian Politics Roundup, follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab, and come back soon for more Canadian politics!

Wendel Schwab
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Monday, 17 November 2014

ComedyCoup: If I had 15 ComedyCoup Projects

I have really been enjoying the CBC's ComedyCoup, as can be seen from all the blog posts I have written about it. I have watched a lot of videos and delved into a lot of the projects, and I liked a lot of what I've seen.

However, I do sometimes disagree with the choices that fans have made to promote certain projects and leave others behind, so I have decided to make my very own Top 15 list. These are the shows that I wish had made the Top 15 mixed in with shows that very much did make the Top 15.

Of course, as per my previous blog post my number one project on ComedyCoup is:


I am all in for Welcome to Tulip and this is my choice as the best project on ComedyCoup. The next four in my Final 5 are:

2. Charlie And Yoni. #LifeAfter30.
3. Dépflies
4. Heir Heads
5. Humantown 

This was an incredibly difficult list to make, and these projects are often separated by a hair. To round off my Top 15 there are projects that were really close to getting into my Final 5 and that I agonized over excluding:


Finally, we come to the rest of the projects I thought deserved to be in the Top 15. Some of these never made it past the Top 55, but I thought they very much deserved to. Some of these are in the Top 15, and it is well deserved:


There are a lot of great projects that made it this far on ComedyCoup, and a lot of great projects that didn't. Quite frankly, choosing the best of these projects is often just rolling the dice and seeing which great project from amongst a lot of great projects gets chosen.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention a bunch of the projects that did not make my final cut, but very well could have. My honourable mentions are:

Bollywood North
Sessions with Dr. Love
Fred And Carl Are Park Rangers
Shirts
I think all of these projects are excellent, and I think many of them had a good chance to win the whole thing. I am looking forward to the next round of ComedyCoup, I'm eager to see what will happen!

Follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab
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Sunday, 16 November 2014

ComedyCoup: One Comedy Show to Rule Them All

After days of agonizing and wrestling with this difficult decision, I know which ComedyCoup project should win and be accelerated into its very own show.

My choice for the best project ComedyCoup ever did see is:


There are so many reasons why Welcome To Tulip is my personal choice, the three main ones are the spot on comic abilities displayed by the Tulip Gang, the technical proficiency displayed with every video the Tulip Gang makes, and the twist on the classic small town theme that pervades so much Canadiana. Welcome To Tulip is set in a hamlet where the main source of income is a theatre that attracts the touristy element. Ever since Sunshine Sketches of a Little Town by Stephen Leacock, written over 100 years ago, there has a proud tradition of satirizing the follies and antics of people living in little towns that dot our great nation. This isn't your average small town comedy though, the antics look to be hilarious. The writing and acting for Welcome To Tulip is top notch in the comedy department, which is important for a comedy show. The Tulip Gang will do anything for a laugh, including jump into the cold, cold ocean. These expert comedy stylings are leavened with great technical talent as the guys in the Tulip Gang know exactly where to put the camera and exactly what to do with it. Whether it's a scene that looks like a single shot, or horror angles and shaky camera that add a surreal element to the scene, Welcome to Tulip looks like a show that's already been airing for years.

Everyone must vote for Welcome To Tulip to win ComedyCoup, follow them on Twitter and Facebook, and above all: vote and #BeFanatic for Welcome To Tulip!
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Wednesday, 12 November 2014

The ComedyCoup Strain: Countdown to Greatness

You can see from my previous blog post about ComedyCoup how I would be very hesitant to choose my very favourite from amongst all these great shows. It'd be kind of like asking me to choose my favourite (non-existent) child. I'd have to think for a little while, but there would be a very clear winner and a whole lot of losers. In the end, I am going to have to say that my very favourite project featured on ComedyCoup, the project that I think should win the grand prize and get to film a real life TV show pilot is.... (drumroll)...

No wait, I'm not at all ready to reveal that information. I will reveal it on, or possibly before, Sunday, but for now I'd like to throw out a few mentions for a few great projects and recap the projects I like. Almost all of the Top 15 projects deserve to be accelerated, so I've taken out my garden shears of criticism and hacked away until I developed a definitive list. The projects I mention are all great and I would be glad if any one of them won the big prize for ComedyCoup.

But first, a few honourable mentions: I would be remiss if I didn't begin with Geoff and the Ninja. This is a show about a guy down on his luck who is forced to get a ninja as a roommate. This project was made by a few guys from my hometown, which is pretty darn cool. Finally, Buddy Guys is very much worth a a look. This project makes me laugh out loud, and I love how they flipped the majority group/minority group expectations in their last video.

To recap, here are my favourite ComedyCoup projects from the Top 15. Each and every one of these projects deserves a look:
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Tuesday, 11 November 2014

Which Comedy is the Coupiest of all the Comedies on ComedyCoup?

If you haven't heard, at this very moment the CBC is holding a competition called ComedyCoup. In a nutshell, this is a sort of contest that a number of aspiring television show makers have entered for the chance to win $500,000 to make a half hour comedy TV show pilot (hence the name).

I love the concept for this competition, I've watched almost 200 aspiring trailers, and I must say, there have been some amazing shows submitted to ComedyCoup. So many that I would love to watch as a half hour television show. If I owned a production company, I would totally pick up a few of these and try to turn them into pilots.

A few of the shows I love include, in no particular order:

First of all, there is Dépflies, a show about people who hang out at the local dépanneur ("convenience store" for all you Anglos out there), it's like Clerks, but set in Montréal. If Dépflies wins, it'll be Canada's first bi-lingual comedy show! Another show that I am liking so far is Bike Cops. Set in Toronto, Bike Cops follows the epic adventures of the most fearsome squad on the force! Well, actually, it's about the misadventures about the most goofy squad on the force. Then there is Heir Heads, two lovable morons are set to inherit their dad's billions. That is, if they can earn a ONE MILLION DOLLARS (hold pinky to mouth) all on their own. One of the heir heads, Ryan Beil, totally reminds me of a Canadian David Mitchell. I hope we'll get to see much more of Humantown, even if they don't win the ComedyCoup. The premise of this show is that it is a wacky sketch comedy show were all the sketches bleed into one another. It looks to be funny as heck. Charlie And Yoni. #LifeAfter30. is a fun romp, it's nice to see an irreverent women-centric comedy. Just don't warn them about their title, they're well aware of it! I'm also pretty sure that making your title a hashtag is marketing gold. A small town show that will be huge is Welcome to Tulip. These guys look like they'll do anything in the name of comedy. Anything. Finally, I couldn't live with myself if I didn't mention Infinite Possibilities, (it's like a Canadian comedy Quantum Leap), Wharf Rats, (though this one might have too much man butt for me), and Roll For Damage, (why aren't there more DND related TV shows out there?)

How could anyone ever pick and choose which is best from amongst these comedy gems? This is such a hard choice to make. Though, I would have to say my personal top 5, again, in no particular order, (discounting the top 1, which I will blog about later) are:





I want these amazing projects to make it into the Top 5, but I do have a favourite. Soon I will choose my very favourite of the ComedyCoup shows and tell you exactly why I think it deserves to win the contest. Until then, bye bye for now!

Follow me on Twitter: @WendelSchwab
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